Confirmation bias

Definition 

Confirmation bias describes the tendency to look for, or interpret information in a way that is consistent with one’s existing beliefs.

Explanation

Confirmation bias is where people seek, interpret and remember information in a way that confirms their existing ideas. It is often unintentional and results in ignoring information that goes counter to one’s convictions. Existing beliefs can include one’s expectations in a given situation and predictions about a particular outcome. Confirmation bias is especially pronounced where information supports when an issue is perceived as relevant or important for an individual.

What to watch out for 

❌ Challenge your own convictions:

When developing hypotheses for important questions make sure to avoid confirmation bias. One popular way to do this is to … In a team you can use methods like “red-team-blue-team” or “pre-mortems”. In the former you assign random people to argue for a certain decision and others to argue against it. In a pre-mortem you collectively outline a hypothetical in which the conviction you hold was false and led to a bad decision. Both methods force you to take the other side of the argument and thus challenge your convictions.

❌ Hold yourself accountable:

Use quantifiable KPIs to determine whether you made a good or bad decision. This way you can hold yourself accountable for adverse outcomes. But watch out: Your confirmation bias might lead you to measure only KPIs that paint a positive picture of the situation. Be honest with yourself and select only KPIs that truly matter to the issue at hand.

Sources & further reading

• https://www.britannica.com/science/confirmation-bias
• Thinking fast and slow
• https://store.hbr.org/product/think-twice-harnessing-the-power-of-counterintuition/12158