Free Webinar

Unlocking Growth with Promotions with Natalia Glushchenko

When one elasticity number quietly drives the wrong pricing and promotion decisions

Promotions in premium and seasonal categories challenge traditional RGM thinking

Most RGM organizations rely on elasticity models built on the assumption that shoppers behave consistently. In premium, seasonal, and gift driven categories, that assumption breaks. Baseline demand, holiday urgency, and promotional response collapse into a single signal that looks clean in analysis and fails in execution.

This session addresses that breakdown directly. It shows how traditional RGM logic misreads demand in premium categories and why separating demand systems changes how pricing, promotions, and margin decisions are actually made.

What You'll Learn

Blended elasticity models actively push premium brands toward the wrong decisions.
When baseline loyalty and seasonal gifting demand are averaged, the result looks precise but leads to over discounting, margin leakage, and poor timing choices.
Premium categories operate with two demand systems that must be managed separately.
Everyday loyalists and seasonal gifters respond to price and promotions in fundamentally different ways that cannot be reconciled in a single model.
Baseline demand is where pricing power actually exists in premium portfolios.
Outside gifting periods, loyal customers show structurally low price sensitivity, creating safe headroom for price actions without volume loss.
Promotions only create real value inside specific seasonal and emotional windows.
Running promotions outside those windows erodes brand equity, trains loyalists to wait, and sacrifices baseline profitability.
Behavioural context explains elasticity volatility better than more complex analytics.
Understanding why shoppers buy in a given moment is more actionable than refining a model that mixes incompatible behaviours.

Watch the session to see how separating demand systems changes real pricing and promotion decisions in premium CPG categories.

Meet the Speaker

Natalia Glushchenko

Director of RGM at Vibrant Ingredients

Natalia Glushchenko leads Revenue Growth Management at Vibrant Ingredients, working across premium and specialty categories where demand behaviour shifts sharply across the year.

Her role sits directly at the intersection of pricing authority, promotional investment, and margin accountability. Prior to Vibrant Ingredients, she held senior RGM and finance roles at JDE Peet’s and Danone, managing real price moves, promotional overhauls, and portfolio decisions in complex commercial environments.

Session Highlights

Traditional RGM fails because it assumes one shopper and one demand curve. [02:05]
Premium and seasonal categories violate this assumption by design, making single elasticity models structurally misleading rather than slightly inaccurate.

Seasonality inflates price sensitivity even when price is not the real driver. [03:01]
Holiday volume spikes are routinely misattributed to discounts, leading models to recommend promotions that were never needed.

Averaging loyalists and gifters produces an elasticity that describes neither. [03:35]
Combining low elasticity baseline buyers with highly elastic seasonal shoppers results in a number that is statistically correct and commercially useless.

Separating demand reveals margin headroom that was previously hidden. [07:45]
Once baseline and seasonal signals are split, pricing actions become safer and more intentional in periods once treated as high risk.

Promotions work only when emotional urgency is present. [14:05]
Outside gifting periods, the same promotional mechanics erode brand position and destroy baseline profitability.

Q&A

How did you separate baseline and seasonal demand in practice?
Baseline demand was defined as out of promotion, outside holiday windows, and tracked historically to establish a stable run rate. Seasonal and promotional demand were then modelled separately using time, channel, and price conditions. [25:02]

How do you know if baseline demand has been damaged over time?
Baseline trend lines were monitored over longer periods to detect structural decline. A falling baseline indicated brand dilution or competitive shifts rather than short term promotional effects. [27:59]

How do you prevent loyal customers from stockpiling during promotions?
Promotions were tightly confined to seasonal windows, limiting opportunities for loyalists to shift purchases. Avoiding year round promotions prevented behavioural training. [18:25]

How consistent is seasonality year over year in premium categories?
Seasonal patterns proved highly repeatable, especially around Q4 gifting periods. This allowed promotion timing to stabilise rather than being constantly redesigned. [29:48]

Does loyalty or subscription data help validate baseline demand?
Subscription and e commerce data made loyalist behaviour visible and predictable, reinforcing the separation between everyday demand and gifting driven spikes. [33:27]